Sales of plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles have stumbled in recent months, and industry analysts put much of the blame on low gasoline prices, but other factors may be at work, a new study showing residuals, or trade-in prices, for battery-cars have been falling rapidly.
EV proponents have long used two separate arguments to promote the technology. They emphasize its environmental benefits. But they also focus on the potential cost savings by turning to relatively cheap electricity, rather than gasoline, to move the metal down the road.
The financial pitch is becoming a much harder sell these days, as gasoline prices hover well below their spring 2014 peak of about $4 a gallon. And a plunge in residuals could wipe out those fuel cost savings entirely.
“The electric car premium over a counterpart gasoline model for mainstream brands has pretty much disappeared for used vehicles from an average premium of $16,600 for new vehicles,” notes a summary of new research by the Black Book, a service that tracks used vehicle pricing. “In fact, in a couple of cases, a used electric model now costs less than (its) gasoline counterpart.”
A new 2012 Nissan Leaf SV, for example, at $36,380, cost $20,287 more than a comparable Nissan Versa SL hatchback. Even after working in the federal tax incentive of $7,500, the “electric premium” was $9,660.
But after three years on the road, that Leaf now has a residual of just 26% of its original price, compared to 43% for the Versa. In terms that matter to an owner, the gas-powered hatchback is worth about $8,300 at trade-in, or $900 more than the battery-electric Leaf.
That pattern holds for the three other mainstream electric vehicles that Black Book analyzed. The Mitsubishi i-MiEV starts out with a retail price of $9,405 more than the maker’s Lancer hatchback. Even after the federal tax credits the battery-car costs $1,905 more. But after three years, the i-MiEV holds only 25% of its original value, the Lancer 43%, so the gas model is now worth $3,100 more.
The Ford Focus Electric is still commanding an $1,100 higher trade-in price than the comparable gas model, but it came to market at $40,387, or nearly twice the price of the Focus SE gas model, and still cost $12,337 more after rolling in the tax credit. The Focus Electric has held just 31% of its original value compared with 44% for the gas model.
The 2012 Chevrolet Volt, the first mainstream plug-in hybrid, holds just 32% of its initial price, compared to 49% for the comparable Chevy Cruze, according to the Black Book study. The Volt will get about $650 at trade-in, but at $40,431, it was nearly double the $20,144 for a Cruze sedan. And even after the federal tax credit it commanded an electric premium of nearly $13,000.
The low residuals for battery-based models, such as the Leaf and Volt, reflect, in part, the current softness of the battery-car market. U.S. consumers have shifted away from high-mileage offerings to less fuel-stingy crossovers, utility vehicles and pickups at a time of cheap gas.
Read more of the original article in The Detroit Bureau.
