Eric Lyman
Director of Residual Value Solutions
ALG
ALG anticipates macro-economic factors will drop residual values 1.7 percentage points during September/October 2013 edition period. Relative to July/August 2013 edition, real durable goods spending forecast is up with corresponding increase to residuals across all segments. Gasoline prices are down and are having minor effect on market – residuals down –0.2 ppt in segments with good fuel economy and up 0.02 ppt for segments with poor fuel economy.
Here’s ALG’s September/October 2013 Industry Report
Overall Macro Impact for September/October vs. July/August is +0.3-ppt:
This edition is more negative than September/ October 2012 edition, when macro changes led to a 1.5-ppt bump in residuals.
At Industry Level, ALG’s Supply Forecast Has Increased Minimally:
Leading to a drop in residuals of under 0.1-ppt.
On Average, Segment-Level Supply Has a -0.1-ppt Impact on Residuals:
Incentive spending on 36 month leases and rental fleet penetration haven’t been impacting residuals lately.
