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What Impact Is Gasoline Prices Having on Used Car Forecasts?

Consumers and federal government mandates put pressure on fuel efficient vehicles to offset fluctuating gasoline prices and emissions, and that includes Detroit 3 automakers lauding higher fuel economy on their pickups.

It’s not helping resale values; not long ago, small cars and hybrids were very strong in used vehicle resale values, but that’s been dropping this year.

What do the experts forecast in the coming months?

Gasoline prices always play a big part in this purchase decision, and it’s looking like they’re not going up anytime soon.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that regular-grade gasoline will have a nationwide average of $3.44 a gallon in the fourth quarter of this year.

EIA saw gas prices reach summer peak of $3.68 per gallon in late July.

Kelley Blue sees fuel prices continuing on a flat trajectory for rest of year with the possibility of a slight depreciation, similar to what happened in 2011.

This will put further downward pressure on hybrid and fuel-efficient vehicle segments, according to Alec Gutierrez, senior analyst for Kelley Blue Book.

Compact crossovers have been softening – they fell 2.4% last month – more than any other car or truck segment, according to Black Book.

It makes for very popular segment and much more used supply is coming back into market – driving prices down further, says Black Book Senior VP and Editorial Director Ricky Beggs.

Segment had much stronger retention earlier in 2013, making it vulnerable to a correction that’s happening lately.

Larger vehicles like full-size pickups are doing better lately than smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles.

Softening fuel prices and economic growth, especially in the construction industry, are giving truck segments the edge for now.

Sep 22, 2013tedroberts
NADA Used Vehicle Price Index – August 2013Blue Book Market Report -- Used Vehicles -- August 2013
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