Toyota, Hyundai, and several Chinese automakers could feel the effects of the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran sooner rather than later.
Analysts from the investment firm Bernstein warn that the situation could affect everything from regional vehicle sales to global supply chains and fuel prices. On top of that, instability around key shipping routes and oil infrastructure could ripple through the global auto industry, potentially having similar economic repercussions to those of the 1970s oil crisis.
Chinese automakers may have an especially tough time, as Iran was responsible for roughly 17% of China’s vehicle exports in 2025, equivalent to about 266,000 vehicles. A prolonged conflict could therefore affect international sales.
