Apple’s reported entry into the autonomous vehicle race will accelerate automakers’ efforts in self-driving technology and could dramatically reshape the industry, experts said this week.
Some analysts think the news that the computer giant is mobilizing hundreds to build an autonomous electric minivan by 2020 could upend the industry. Others are less concerned, but think the perceived threat will hasten automakers’ efforts into self-driving technology and electric cars.
Apple Inc. wasn’t at the New York International Auto Show this week; it hasn’t acknowledged it is working on a car. Also absent were Google, which has logged more than 700,000 miles in autonomous cars, and Tesla Motors, with its stylish EVs and aggressive growth plans. But all three were much talked-about among automakers, analysts and the press.
Morgan Stanley auto analyst Adam Jonas says automakers have reason to be worried. He is confident Apple will be able to produce an autonomous car by 2020. He thinks such a car could first be used as taxis in urban areas, and ultimately spur widespread adoption. He believes some cities will even ban driving by humans by 2030.
“It accelerates everybody,” Jonas said in an interview this week in New York. “If Google or Apple get a small fleet of driverless taxis on San Francisco roads, that could change forever transportation.”
Features like lane-departure warnings, adaptive cruise-control that speeds up or slows down cars to maintain their pace in traffic — all steps on the way to autonomous driving — are available from most carmakers already.
Jonas thinks reported Apple’s car project could help spur worldwide consolidation in the auto industry in the next quarter-century from 35 significant automakers to five or six. “It accelerates the move from software being worth 10 percent of the value of the car to 60 percent,” he said. “The new rare resource is brains: What kind of people in your organization rather that what kind of steel are we bending.”
GM already has partnered with Apple to integrate Siri Eyes Free and is one of many automakers working with the company on its CarPlay system that allows apps to be projected onto in-vehicle touchscreens.
He said Apple has enough money that it could pose a major disruptive force in the auto industry.
Asked if GM would build a car with Apple, Reuss said GM “has no proposals.” But he added: “Those are the best of both worlds. Yeah, we’re open to all that.”
Ford CEO Mark Fields says the Dearborn automaker welcomes new entrants. “It’s going to keep us all on our toes from an innovation standpoint,” Fields said Sunday in the run-up to the New York show. “We are absolutely looking at this as an opportunity and not just as a threat.”
But Morgan Stanley’s Jonas sees few obstacles: “It’s just time — the technology is there.”
To see the original story go to The Detroit News.
