Personal transportation is on the cusp of its greatest transformation since the advent of the internal combustion engine.
With the rise of self-driving vehicles, ride-sharing, traffic congestion and environmental regulation, we may not even own cars in the future, much less drive them.
A glimpse of the coming revolution can be seen in the models debuted at the Los Angeles Auto Show. Hidden under their hoods and dashboards are sensors that take the first steps toward autonomous driving. Already, cars can park themselves, slam on the brakes to avoid crashes and adjust steering to stay centered in a lane.
For a century, cars have been symbols of freedom and status. Passengers of the future may well view vehicles as just another form of public transportation, to be purchased by the trip or in a subscription.
Buying sexy, fast cars for garages could evolve into buying seat-miles in appliance-like pods, piloted by robots, parked in public stalls.
“There will come a time when driving the car is like riding the horse,” said futurist Peter Schwartz. “Some people will still like to do it, but most of us won’t.”
Gasoline may give way to hydrogen, batteries or both — or some as-yet-unimagined power source.
“You have to be careful about one of those predictions for the future that we will all be wrong about,” said Beau Boeckmann, president of Galpin Motors of North Hills, which owns the nation’s largest Ford dealership and other large auto franchises.
The automobile, Boeckmann said, is among the “few mechanical objects that people fall in love with.”
He believes there will always be people who want to own a car and drive it — though they are likely to take advantage of autopilot in heavy traffic and other situations.
The rapid application of computing power to transportation will open the industry to new entrants. Automakers that survive will shift most of their business to create transit companies, or to selling their vehicles to those who do. Car companies are just starting to wrestle with that prospect.
“New mobility, car sharing, ride sharing, what does that mean for us? We are thinking through that,” said Mark Fields, Ford’s chief executive, at a recent investor conference. “We are thinking like a car and truck company, but we are also thinking like a mobility company.”
Currently, most cars sit idle, requiring storage, at least 22 hours a day. “What else do we buy for so much money and then not use it?” asked Geoff Wardle, executive director, Graduate Transportation Systems and Design at Art Center College of Design in Pasadena.
Meanwhile, increasing regulations both in the U.S. and globally are forcing automakers to trade performance for greater fuel economy and fewer emissions. As automakers adopt, its going to be harder to find a car that satisfies your inner Mario Andretti.
Over time, the emotional link between car and driver — the underpinning of car ownership — will continue to erode.
