ExxonMobil has released a forecast of energy trends, and says that diesel will soon outsell gasoline as the world’s leading transportation fuel. Diesel will surpass gasoline as early as 2020 and will continue to gain share for at least another 20 years after that. ExxonMobil’s report, “Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040,” forecasts that for the more than 25 years covered by the report, diesel demand is expected to account for 70% of the growth in all transportation fuels.
Here are some key points from the ExxonMobil study:
1. The number of diesel models available in US showrooms is soon expected to double, according to one trade group. While some Americans are still skeptical about the energy-dense fuel, there is a significant increase in demand.
2. Sales of vehicles in the commercial vehicle sector will play the largest role in diesel sales increasing over gasoline.
3. Diesel has seen something of an energy renaissance in recent years, driven largely by demand in Europe, where diesel-powered vehicles account for about half of all sales. There are signs that sales of diesel-engine vehicles in China and the US are increasing.
4. Gasoline-engine vehicle sales will flatten out relatively and some of this will come from forecasted growth in “electrified” vehicles – hybrids, electrics, and plug-in hybrids through 2040.
5. Audi will add four new diesel models for 2014, GM will soon launch the Chevrolet Cruze diesel version, Chrysler will add a Jeep Grand Cherokee diesel, and Mazda will offer a diesel-powered Mazda6.
6. Much of the growth in diesel demand will come from commercial fleets. Heavy-duty vehicle sales is expected to grow substantially in emerging markets lie China, Brazil, and India.
7. Growth in fuel-efficient gasoline vehicles under federal fuel economy mandates will also offset sales of gasoline compared to diesel.
