A new report predicts that by 2030, 15 percent of global automotive sales will be of fully autonomous cars, and the industry will continue to undergo massive technological changes.
The report by McKinsey & Company — a consulting firm that studies automotive trends — touches on a number of trends, including the increased adoption of shared mobility companies like Uber and Lyft, the expected proliferation of electric vehicles thanks to government regulation, the continued rise in auto sales and the advancements in driverless car technology.
The biggest takeaway from “Automotive Revolution – Perspective Towards 2030” is that the auto industry and driver needs are evolving, and automakers had better be ready to change with the times.
“What we are going through is the most unprecedented time of disruptive change in the automotive industry as it transforms itself into a mobility industry,” Hans-Werner Kaas, a senior partner in McKinsey’s automotive practice, said in an interview. “Consumer needs are changing fast and in more real time today, therefore understanding them is very critical.”
The report found that, especially in cities and other densely populated areas, the importance of vehicle ownership is declining. Thanks to ride-sharing services like Uber and Lyft, and car-sharing services like Zipcar, the share of young people (age 16-24) that hold a driver’s license dropped from 76 percent in 2000 to 71 percent in 2013, while there has been over 30 percent annual growth in car sharing members in North America and Germany over the last five years.
As a result, the report predicts that by 2030, up to 1 out of 10 new cars sold may likely be a shared vehicle. By 2050, the report predicts 1 out of 3 new cars sold will be shared.
In 2030, the share of electrified vehicles could range from 10 to 50 percent of new vehicle sales, the report found. Kaas said certain hurdles remain, including lack of charging station infrastructure and cost to build the vehicles, but government demands on automakers’ emissions standards will continue to drive the creation of EVs.
Ford last month pledged to spend $4.5 billion on electric vehicles by the end of the decade, and since 2009, General Motors Co. has spent at least $2 billion in Michigan alone on electric vehicle research. GM will unveil an all-electric Bolt with about a 200 mile range this week at CES.
The study also predicts that vehicle sales — which will likely hit an all-time record in the U.S. for 2015 — will continue to grow, but at a slower rate. It says sales are growing now at a 3.6 percent rate, but that will drop to about 2 percent by 2030.
Read more of the original article in The Detroit News
