2015 will turn out to be the peak year of fossil fuel use. By 2020 it will be clear that the decline in consumption of fossil fuels began this year. It therefore will be the first year of flat to down fossil fuel emissions.
This is a very significant event: The beginning of the end of the fossil fuel energy era.
The economic significance of this is monumental. We have seen a collapse in the price of oil. Short of a major catastrophe in Saudi Arabia — a possibility — we will never see $100/barrel oil again. I have forecast this and been saying this for the last year.
The supply of oil is far outstripping demand. OPEC has lost its power to control price because there is a surplus of oil. Countries that have been relying on petroleum exports for their economy will have economic disruption. Many of these countries — think the Middle East, Africa and Latin America — all have an abundance of sun and wind and will turn to them for their own energy rather than spending money on gas subsidies for their citizens.
This is occurring because of a convergence of short and long-term trends. The transportation and building sectors have become vastly more energy efficient than in 2000, or even 2010. The price of alternative and renewable energy has dropped dramatically in the last ten years and is now comparable in cost to fossil fuels as a source of electricity.
There is a rapidly growing critical mass of people who fully see and understand the magnitude of climate change. This affects everything they do and buy. Climate change is directly tied to fossil fuel use.
This significant event will trigger a massive amount of change and perceptual change. Once it is clear that fossil fuel usage is in decline, the financial sector will look at all fossil fuel companies differently. They will no longer be a good long-term investment.
The massive fossil fuel companies that dominate the Fortune Global 100 will soon have to make a choice.
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