By Bill Bishop, SVP of Sales and Marketing, FLD Remarketing
February 4, 2026
Part 2 of a 2 part report: A look at 2026. To read Part 1, a look back at 2025, Click here.
Previously, the FLD 2025 Q4 White Metal Market Report focused on what happened in 2025. Here, we take a look ahead at what we think 2026 might hold for the wholesale used vehicle market.
2026: One More, Just Like Before
Pulling out our crystal ball and looking into the next year has never been easy. Not even in the pre-pandemic days of wine and roses when the type of challenges fleet has experienced in the past few years were hardly imaginable. But as I’ve been fond of saying over the 9 year’s we’ve been compiling this report:
My how things have changed!
When just a decade ago it would have been hard to imagine roadblocks like new vehicle scarcity, driver shortages and used assets being pushed into service longer than ever – those are everyday occurrences now. In my opinion, the fleet industry has changed more in the past 5 years than perhaps the previous half century between 1970 and 2020 and that’s made looking into the future harder than ever!
So, while my prediction is that barring a catastrophic event – i.e., a major geo-political upheaval or a meltdown in world financial markets, 2026 should be a very similar year to both 2024 and 2025 for the wholesale used vehicle markets.
“Predictable”
In our estimation, this is a positive sign for fleet and commercial vehicles. Especially given that it will result in the third straight year of predictable, manageable volume and pricing – which is even better!
All of that said, there are a few possible headwinds we’ll be keeping our eyes on, none bigger than … You guessed it…
“It’s the Economy, Stupid”
You know the now infamous statement about the most obvious challenge we all face. In fact, all roads seemingly do lead to the economy.
The reality is the wholesale used vehicle market – just like everyday consumer items – is supremely affected by the economy. So, much of what lies ahead in 2026 – just like we heard in 2025 – is noise in the economic pipe. A condition that’s made it difficult for fleet professionals to plan for – well – anything.
It doesn’t matter whether you’re a top fleet manager, FMC, or even a service provider like our team here FLD, the only thing that we know for sure is that we really don’t know all that much until things play out on the world and domestic stages – putting an even bigger premium on predictability.
And just what’s causing all this uncertainty and the accompanying hand-wringing?
Well, just take a look at the evening news and there’s a virtual smorgasbord of non-stop economic news that’s not only dominated the cycle, but seeped into the collective psyche of American business, the fleet industry included.
Tariffs. Interest rates. Skirmishes. Ugh! Frankly, it’s a lot – and it’s taken its toll not just on economic conditions but on people’s psyches.
Although American businesses have adapted to handling bad news, they find uncertainty especially challenging. And when the bellwethers you’ve relied on to understand the used wholesale vehicle market for years don’t make a lot of sense, predicting the future ain’t what it used to be!
For instance, in most years we look to several key data points to better understand the used wholesale vehicle market and where both pricing and availability are headed. Historically these data points have included 4 or 5 key indicators such as employment data, housing starts and sales, interest rates and consumer spending.
Mix in info on freight demand and fuel costs and we got some pretty solid readings throughout 2025. Readings that – while not as certain as they once were given current conditions – lead us to have fairly strong opinions on where things are headed in 2026. This despite the boatload full of uncertainty looming over both the economy and our industry. Uncertainty that has left most fleet professionals I’ve spoken to – including our own Customer Advisory Board of top work fleet managers – numb to the noise and focused on simply running the best fleet they know how.
Looking out on 2026, here’s what our team is expecting:
- Jobs numbers have been pretty stable throughout 2025 and we expect them to stay that way in 2026. There isn’t any obvious roadblock here.
New housing construction was strong and should remain so given the shortage of available homes to purchase. Contractors and trades have a large impact on our segment of the market. Infrastructure, commercial and residential building are essential to a strong used truck market, and we expect these activities to continue.- Spending – the precursor to a robust freight market – on a consumer and business level has been mixed. Our focus here is final mile and local distribution. There is little evidence of a fallout here.
- Interest rates are a wild card at this point. After some easing of rates in late 2025, the central banks seem content to hold rates steady for at least the first half of 2025. Vehicle financing has eased a bit this year and we think there’s a good chance table rates may allow for better financing options. This is something we hope to see with financial institutions like Bank of America reporting record profits at the end of 2025.
- Freight and fuel are often difficult to predict. Freight has so many factors weighing on it, it would be difficult to project without some very granular segmentation. All indications are that fuel cost will remain stable, if not move downward, in the next 7-8 months.
- There is volatility in the US dollar and that’s likely to continue. This will have a greater effect on the export markets for certain classes and applications, something we’ll be keeping a close eye on.
The 600-Ton Semi in the Room
One thing we haven’t really touched on much is tariffs – the undisputed boogeyman of 2025. When announced, they sent a shiver down the collective spine of our country’s populace with business and consumers alike working themselves into a collective frenzy.
Today, a year after chatter about the possible collapse of the U.S. economy – “because of tariffs” – our entire country and for sure the fleet industry remains in a wait & see condition. And while it’s possible that it will change by the time you read this, the Supreme Court is likely to take up tariffs when it reconvenes in late January.
So, tariffs are likely to dominate the news cycle again in 2026. And while there’s little doubt they will have a more profound effect on the new vehicle market than the used wholesale market, it’s equally as likely the uncertainty around them will hang over the entire industry until some important decisions are made.
TRUST. KNOWLEDGE. FLD.
Approaching a half century as the company that pioneered work fleet remarketing, I can tell you that the entire team here at FLD is excited and chomping at the bit for the year ahead. With so much going on in fleet we’re ready to help our customers seize the day with risk free remarketing that saves them time and money. Makes their life easier. And gives them the peace of mind they need to realize their most important goals. They’re the things we strive for every day here at FLD, and we look forward to sharing our insights and knowledge in this publication each quarter.
Thanks for stopping in and be sure to check out our quarterly Fleet Manager Sentiment Index which takes a look at how top fleet managers are feeling about a basket of 7 key areas of fleet including safety, service and more. It can be viewed at www.fldinc.com/news.
About the author
Bill Bishop is SVP of Sales and Marketing at FLD Remarketing and with over 35 years of experience in fleet, a recognized expert in the used wholesale vehicle market. He has been authoring FLD’s quarterly White Metal Market Report for the past decade and can be reached with questions or comments at [email protected].
