By Steve Saltzgiver, Director – Mercury Associates Inc.

The year 2020 will undoubtedly be one of the most memorable years in all human history, with the economies of more than 180 countries being shut down for months as the world combats the novel coronavirus (COVID-19).

Ironically, COVID-19 emerged during one of the longest economic recoveries ever seen. When the pandemic hit, many fleets were busily engaged in replacing their vehicles and expanding their vehicle count to handle the economic boom. Then they suddenly found themselves going from full-employment to millions of people unemployed and vast numbers of equipment being moth-balled as the world’s economy plunged into recession.

Obviously, this recession is something of an historic anomaly, and no one has all the answers to where fleets should go next to recover from this major financial setback. However, while the debate is raging between the economists as to whether the recovery will be “U-shaped”, “V-shaped” or some other-shaped curve, one thing is certain: the remainder of 2020 and possibly the next few years will be severely impacted. No one really knows the extent of the impact, but if past recessions are an indicator, we should expect to see fleet budgets slashed, equipment lifecycles extended, staff sizes decreased, and salaries reduced in the short term to overcome the financial downturn.

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By Mark Boada, Executive Editor

Remember all the hype a few years ago about how incredibly close we were to having autonomous vehicles (AVs) on the road that would make us virtually incapable of crashing?

Some predicted the miracle would arrive fully fledged as early as this year, or 2021, maybe 2022. But it was going to be real and be a great advance in highway safety, starting us off onto the road of zero accidents (along, of course, with zero emissions and zero ownership).

Well, we’re halfway into 2020 and the vision remains, at best, in prototype testing, with assorted weaknesses, glitches, mishaps and bugs. So, instead of first-stage Utopia, now we’re in the valley of disappointment and lowered expectations, as OEMs and the self-driving technology community have admitted that fulfillment of the dream is far off into the future, if it ever gets here at all. By 2030? 2035? 2050? One or the other prognosticator has offered each one of these target dates.

That, of course, is not to say that money is going to stop flowing into the effort to create fully self-driving vehicles. On the contrary, the vision and the desire to be the eventual market leader is more likely to increase the flow of billions of dollars into the effort, albeit for more years than anybody anticipated before.

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A partnership between fleet and mobility software provider, Sofico, and electric vehicle sharing specialist, BattMobility, has produced its first deliverable product – a vehicle reservation app for BattMobility customers to select, book and drive one of BattMobility’s electric cars, bikes or scooters.

Chief Technical Officer Piet Maes said the car-sharing app was an important development for the business with many of its customers looking to capitalize on the growing mobility trend of putting more people in fewer vehicles. “With the shift away from ownership towards usership, it is no longer about the vehicle but increasingly about the driver experience,” he said. “Car manufacturers are reinventing themselves as mobility service providers by bundling subscription models with driver-oriented services and peer-to-peer sharing, as part of a move towards on-demand instant access to vehicles.

“Meanwhile, fleet and leasing operators want to manage the usage of their vehicles with greater and different granularity, ranging from minutes to years. In addition to long term products, they are also increasingly offering ultra-short term rental and car-sharing services to their fleet customers,” he said. “

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Forbes

Commercial trucking may be the answer to the out of economic balance between the supply and demand of rush hour congestion and empty roads at 3am.

Using the automotive communication technologies (V2X) to build smart roads detecting congestion-based signals, along with advanced ADAS technology for commercial vehicles which provide higher safety for night time travel, will likely move non time sensitive commercial traffic into times of low utilization.

If the structure works as intended, the investment in the incentive structures are funded by lower congestion for everyone, a decreased need to expand the civil infrastructure, and increased safety for everyone.

Read the article at Forbes.

The Detroit Bureau

Battery-electric vehicles comprise less than 5% of all new vehicles sold in the U.S., but that number is expected to rise to 50% by 2035 due in part of improving battery performance and falling prices.

Lux Research believes automakers should focus on their battery-supply chain, specifically battery shortages. The shortages have already caused some automakers to reduce their BEV production plans.

For many automakers, the goal has been to get their EVs under the $30K bar, putting it on par with most non-electric vehicles sold in the U.S. As automakers continue to improve charging speed and minimize battery size, more consumers are expected to seek out electric vehicles.

Read the article at The Detroit Bureau.

USA Today

Hertz’s current fleet consists of roughly 700,000 rental cars, which have greatly diminished in value due to a sharp drop in used car prices caused by a free fall in auto sales stemming from the pandemic.

Hertz Global Holdings Inc. racked up more than $24 billion in debt by the end of March, according to its bankruptcy filing, with only $1 billion in available cash.

In a search on the Hertz website within 1,000 miles from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, there were more than 23,500 cars available Saturday with a 2017 Hyundai Elantra SE Sedan with nearly 71,000 miles selling for $7,597. According to website iseecars, the car was selling for $1,740 below market price.

Read the article at USA Today.

Green Car Reports

Hydrogen fuel-cell cars face many roadblocks to mass adoption, but a new report drafted by the California Energy Commission claims they could achieve price parity with gasoline by 2025.

The key findings are that the dispensed price of hydrogen is likely to meet an interim target based on fuel economy-adjusted price parity with gasoline of $6.00 to $8.50 per kilogram by 2025. That figure does not include the impact of California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits, which would lower the cost of hydrogen to consumers even further, the report said.

Price parity with internal combustion has also long been considered a goal for battery-electric cars to aim for, but it’s usually discussed in terms of battery cost, not efficiency.

Read the article at Green Car Reports.

CNBC

Automakers Ford Motor and Volkswagen plan to share production of 8 million commercial vehicles with assembly expected to begin as early as next year and continue through the life cycles of the products.

Products will include a city van created and built by Volkswagen; a 1-ton cargo van engineered by Ford; and a Volkswagen medium-sized pickup that will use the platform of the Ford Ranger.

“In light of the Covid 19 pandemic and its impacts on the global economy, more than ever it is vital to set up resilient alliances between strong companies,” Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess said in a release. “This collaboration will efficiently drive down development costs, allowing broader global distribution of electric and commercial vehicles, and enhance the positions of both companies.”

Read the article at CNBC.

Autoblog

In its annual “Car Wars” report, Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts a wave of new-car launches coming in 2022 at nearly double the rate of the past two decades and nearly half of those new-product introductions will be EVs or hybrids.

The analysis looks out four years into the future. Next year, 2021, is predicted to see a total of 40 new vehicles. That pace will jump to 77 in 2022, according to the report, and will remain elevated with 70 introductions in 2023 and 63 in 2024. EVs and hybrids are a big driver of that total and are expected to comprise 49 percent of the total new-model intros over the next four years (EVs being 26 percent and hybrids 23 percent).

The biggest increase by segment is crossovers, which account for nearly half the total (49 percent). Light trucks at 28 percent are the next-biggest segment. The three passenger-car segments — luxury/sport, mid/large, and small — each comprise less than 10 percent of the total.

Read the article at Autoblog.

Detroit Free Press

General Motors is risking its U.S. market share in a long-term play to offer an all-electric vehicle lineup, but it’s the smart play for the future, especially if federal fuel economy regulations increase or gasoline prices drive higher.

By putting a lot of resources into electric powertrains and vehicles that use those, they’ve taken away some of the resources from traditional products.

GM has said it will offer 20 electric vehicles by 2023. It has been aggressively investing billions to get there. GM’s risk is elevated, in part, because it will not have hybrid SUV offerings as it puts billions of dollars into future EV development.

Read the article at Detroit Free Press.